Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Who Goes To Prison Due To Gun Control?- OpEd Eurasia Review

Who Goes To Prison Due To Gun Control?- OpEd Eurasia Review:

Who Goes To Prison Due To Gun Control?- OpEd


December 22, 2012
Somehow, left-liberals have associated the cause of gun rights with white racism, when if anything it is gun control that has a racist legacy. In the United States, early gun laws targeted recently freed blacks, and open carry first became banned in California under Governor Ronald Reagan to disarm groups like the Black Panthers. Today, blacks and Hispanics are disproportionately subjected to humiliating stop-and-frisk searches in the name of gun control.
Perhaps the most telling data concerns the racial makeup of who goes to prison for gun violations. According to the U.S. Sentencing Commission, for Fiscal Year 2011, 49.6% of those sentenced to federal incarceration with a primary offense of firearms violations were black, 20.6% were Hispanic, and only 27.5% were white.
United States
United States
This is how gun laws actually work—those caught violating them go to prison. For the mere act of owning an illegal weapon—not necessarily for using it, not for threatening anyone with it, not for being irresponsible with it—people who have harmed no one are locked up in prison for years at a time. As with the rest of the criminal justice system, particularly the war on drugs, these laws disproportionately harm the poor and minorities. That is the inescapable reality of gun control.
It makes sense that blacks and others living in the inner city would rely more on private, illegal guns for self-defense. The police are unreliable at best in many of these communities. It also makes sense that minorities would be disproportionately hurt by these laws, because so many of the dynamics in play are the same as with the drug war—people are being punished for what they own, rather than what they have done to others; it is easier for police to go after those in poor neighborhoods than to search middle-class folks in nice neighborhoods; jurors approved by prosecutors tend to believe police testimony over the word of minority defendants; prosecutors tend to use discretion in possession crime cases that fall more painfully on the disenfranchised; public defenders offer inadequate services for those loads of court-appointed clients, and so forth.
Left-liberals will respond that the racist implementation of gun laws is a problem independent of firearms policy, that we need stricter laws against guns and we’ll deal with inequity in prosecution and sentencing separately. But rarely do they make the same point with drug policy. Progressives know that in origin and in practice, drug policy is unmistakably racist. There is no way to easily purge the system of its racist elements—the problems are too entrenched. Yet these people somehow don’t fully grasp that this is just as unavoidably true as it concerns gun control policy.
When it comes to restricting firearms, liberals have an amazing ability to ignore the hard truth of what they are advocating—putting more people in cages. That is what gun controlis. Sometimes it almost seems like progressives are completely blind to this obvious reality—that they understand the problems with drug laws, that they see laws like Three Strikes unfairly punish people for minor property crimes, that they detect a problem with the death penalty even for convicted murderers, that they know that for the whole range of criminal offenses, the state tends to go overboard in dealing with the accused. Except for gun control! On this, we can expect equity, fairness, and efficiency! In truth, putting people in cages won’t make a dent in criminal gun ownership, just as having a half million people behind bars for drug offenses has hardly stemmed the availability of illicit drugs. But that’s a whole other set of questions.
There are a hundred reasons why I oppose gun control. But here is one that lefties, if they are to be consistent at all, need to take to heart: More gun laws mean more peaceful people, disproportionately young black and brown men, who have committed no violence against anyone, being locked up in cells. That might make you feel safer. But it makes me feel like I live in a mockery of a free, humane society.

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About the author:
Anthony Gregory
Anthony Gregory is a Research Editor at The Independent Institute. His articles have appeared in the San Diego Union-Tribune, East Valley Tribune (AZ), Contra Costa Times, The Star (Chicago, IL), Washington Times, Vacaville Reporter, Palo Verde Times, and other newspapers.

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Saturday, December 22, 2012

Rachel Maddow: NRA meaningful contributions same old song and dance

Rachel Maddow: NRA meaningful contributions same old song and dance:
(Pittsburg's mayor: Gives his opinion on NRA's public announcement on Sandy Hook.)
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Rachel Maddow: NRA meaningful contributions same old song and dance

Rachel Maddow: NRA meaningful contributions same old song and dance:
(Pittsburg's mayor: Gives his opinion on NRA's public announcement on Sandy Hook.)
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Friday, December 21, 2012

The Last Word: Conservative Judge rewrites himself on guns

The Last Word: Conservative judge rewrites himself on guns:

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The Last Word: So whats Plan C for fiscal cliff?

The Last Word: So whats Plan C for fiscal cliff?:

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"Lincoln": The Underbelly of the Democratic Process

"Lincoln": The Underbelly of the Democratic Process:

"Lincoln": The Underbelly of the Democratic Process

Sunday, 09 December 2012 07:06By Aaron LeonardTruthout | Movie Review
Abraham Lincoln.(Photo: Wikimedia)Spielberg's masterwork movie Lincolnprovokes a re-examination of our history - and our present.
One watches Spielberg's Lincoln with mixed emotions. This is a masterwork of acting, cinematic detail and epic history. It is a story that does not stay on the surface; the dialogue is rich and thoughtful. Most astonishing of all is to see a matter so central to the history of the United States discussed in ways many will find revelatory. The Civil War was unambiguously, at its core, a war about whether or not the US would continue to legally embrace slavery. For example, the presence of "Radical Republicans" like Thaddeus Stevens will no doubt surprise people - that in the mid-19th century there were white people passionately committed, not just to the abolition of slavery, but to the full equality of those who would be freed from such bondage. Perhaps most compellingly we see, Daniel Day Lewis' Lincoln: a man of intelligence, charm and inner conflict. He becomes real to us in ways unimaginable before seeing this film.
Yet at its core there is something vexing. It is 1865, two years since Lincoln signed theEmancipation Proclamation declaring slavery ended in the states and territories in rebellion (i.e. the South). Now the matter of adopting a Constitutional Amendment (the 13th), making slavery illegal in the US as a whole, is on the agenda. Here is where the film lives. We are largely treated to two-and half-hours of Congressional maneuvering that presents us with what for me is a peculiar inverted thinking. For this film, it is an act of Congress - with war as a backdrop - that brought slavery to an end, rather than the reverse: that it was Civil War - with all the blood and sacrifice that entailed - that brought Congress to act.
Indeed there is a scene where Abraham Lincoln sits across the table from Confederate Vice President Alexander Stevens - ostensibly trying to come to terms of a peace. Stevens tells Lincoln that it is war that has brought them to this, to which Lincoln responds with a homily - amid swelling music - on the importance and imperfectness of democracy. Yet Stevens seems the one more in sync with reality. Slavery was "democratically" enshrined in the US Constitution; its inclusion was what allowed for the coherence of the nation. It was only through this war that the basis for a reconstitution was laid. While the violence of the war was truly awful, it was a violence, as the film shows, that included allowing former slaves to fight with the Union Army - not only denying the South of the aid of its "property," but energizing the Union Army through the addition of forces with a passionate interest in fighting.
In the end, the North prevailed, but its eagerness to reintegrate the former Confederacy - emblematic in the scene in which Union soldiers remove their hats in deference to Robert E. Lee - meant that former slaves would not be fully free. After the brief and bold experiment of Reconstruction, much of what had been gained in the Congressional fight we see in the film - and other even more radical Constitutional measures that came later (the 14th and 15th Amendments) - was viciously rolled back to be supplanted by a brutal and murderous white supremacy. Ensuing decades of contention were required to finally bring black people close to legal equality: such things as the struggle in the early 20th century against lynching, the Civil Rights movements of the 1950s and '60s and the urban insurrections that followed - and the advent of a Black Power movement after that. Even with all that and the passage of so much time, we remain saddled today with the staggering incarceration rate for black men, draconian stop-and-frisk tactics by local police in black and Latino neighborhoods, and myriad other modalities that maintain these oppressive social relations.
In the end, one watches Lincoln with a disturbing thought. Viewed one way, we see how far things went. Indeed the seminal scene is watching this amendment finally make its way toward passage, something unimaginable only a few years earlier. And at that point, we are meant to cheer for Thaddeus Stevens when he dials down his rhetoric and does not proclaim black people equal in all ways to whites. In this way, the film tempers our expectations, anchors them to archaic institutions and tells us not to overreach. Viewed from how much remains undone, we are left asking, is this the most we can hope for? Shouldn't we try for more?
Copyright, Truthout. May not be reprinted without permission of the author.

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Thursday, December 20, 2012

The Grand Sellout Emerges(on SSI)

The Grand Sellout Emerges:

The Grand Sellout Emerges

By Charles Pierce, Esquire
19 December 12

 generally believe Ezra Klein when he talks about how everyone who matters is coming together to make a deal, so may I just congratulate all the important people on both sides of the aisle who have come together in semi-good faith to ram it to the rest of us. Really, kids, if this isn't really just a trial balloon big enough for the Macy's parade, well done.
On the spending side, the Democrats' headline concession will be accepting chained-CPI, which is to say, accepting a cut to Social Security benefits. Beyond that, the negotiators will agree to targets for spending cuts. Expect the final number here, too, to be in the neighborhood of $1 trillion, but also expect it to lack many specifics. Whether the cuts come from Medicare or Medicaid, whether they include raising the Medicare age, and many of the other contentious issues in the talks will be left up to Congress.
So here's where we sit. The Democrats, led by the president, who never is going to need to depend on Social Security, are prepared to concede on an issue that has absolutely nothing to do with the deficit. They are going to make life harder for millions of seniors. Social Security is now squarely "on the table" in any future budget negotiation. (Hey, who unplugged the third rail?) The simplest solution — raising the cap — is beyond discussion, now and forever. The "chained-CPI," which is a terrible idea on its own merits, as well as a piece of noxious moral sleight-of-hand, seeing as how it cuts benefits while pretending not to do so, is being adopted whole hog without a corresponding mechanism to raise more Social Security revenue to make up for the loss. If the president maintains his faith in the great god SimpsonBowles, the old folks will get a bump for only two years after the deal takes effect. Swell.
There are a couple of lines of thought here. For example, Paul Krugman is more optimistic.
Those cuts are a very bad thing, although there will supposedly be some protection for low-income seniors. But the cuts are not nearly as bad as raising the Medicare age, for two reasons: the structure of the program remains intact, and unlike the Medicare age thing, they wouldn't be totally devastating for hundreds of thousands of people, just somewhat painful for a much larger group. Oh, and raising the Medicare age would kill people; this benefit cut, not so much.
"Not so much"? That's what we get for a deal in which the president is simultaneously not even getting everything that he wants as regards the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Granny needs to lose some weight anyway.
Quite honestly, the president's willingness to tinker this way with Social Security marks his presidency in a way that nothing else ever will. There is no economic need to do this to Social Security at all. There is no need for the program even to come up in the discussions. This locks Social Security forever into being defined for all political purposes as an "entitlement," and we all know that "entitlements" need to be reformed because everybody this president considers his primary constituencies say they must. It sets the stage for more concessions down the line by any Democratic president who doesn't possess the political momentum that the current president seems hellbent on squandering. This is that most horrible of Beltway concoctions — a deal for a deal's sake, a demonstration for the courtier press that Washington "works." (Chris Matthews last night said that he wanted a cliff-avoiding deal so that "Washington" could prove it can work again. He framed it around the events in Connecticut and gn control. These people think ... strangely.) If John Boehner brings home this deal, his caucus should name him emperor. If that caucus turns him down, they all should be placed in a locked ward for the duration of the president's second term. Meanwhile, David Gregory just had an orgasm you could hear on Mars.
UPDATE -- And, apparently, at the moment, the emperor has no votes. I am particularly amused by one element of the GOP reaction.
In spite of statements to the contrary just a week ago, House Republicans on Tuesday seemed almost uniformly resigned to some sort of tax rate increases on the nation's highest earners, though they remained committed to keeping that group as small as possible. "The principle of trying to limit the increases is a good one," said Representative Jason Chaffetz of Utah. "But now we've got to see more spending cuts."
Chaffetz, you may recall, was all over TV this weekend, using the "let's talk about mental health" dodge so that nobody talked about the country's lunatic infatuation with firearms. Not that Chaffetz will pay for it or anything.

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Rachel Maddow: Robert Bork, conservative icon, dead at 85

Rachel Maddow: Robert Bork, conservative icon, dead at 85:

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Rachel Maddow: Will Republicans allow any new gun legislation?

Rachel Maddow: Will Republicans allow any new gun legislation?:
(There is no head ATF for last six years).
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Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Lawrence O’Donnell Rewrites NRA’s ‘blood-drenched’ boss — MSNBC

Lawrence O’Donnell Rewrites NRA’s ‘blood-drenched’ boss — MSNBC:
Excellent attack on NRA's wily stands. Writers of Constitution intended that people have one musket gun, which loaded one bullet per minute & in their wildest dream did not expect it to be applied to semi Automatic Weapons)
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Rachel Maddow: Activism among steps to healing for Newtown residents

Rachel Maddow: Activism among steps to healing for Newtown residents:
Rev. C. Welton Gaddy from NewTown, Interfaith Alliance President
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Rachel Maddow: Shooting tragedy marks change in national will to advance gun safety laws

Rachel Maddow: Shooting tragedy marks change in national will to advance gun safety laws:
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, CT - speaks up.
Gov. Snyder of MI - Vetos concealed gun law passed by State Congress & Senate.
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Is Obama Throwing Seniors Off a Cliff? | Alternet

Is Obama Throwing Seniors Off a Cliff? | Alternet:

  NEWS & POLITICS  
comments_image 69 COMMENTS

Is Obama Throwing Seniors Off a Cliff?

As part of a tax and spending deal, President Obama is reportedly willing to agree to significant cuts to Social Security benefits.
 
Photo Credit: AFP
 
 
 
 
This morning brings news of a  possible deal  on the horizon, concerning the “fiscal cliff.” Obama would get the an extension of the Bush tax cuts for households with incomes under $400,000 (not $250,000, which was his goal), a two-year debt limit reprieve, the elimination of the sequester, and additional revenue and the extension of emergency unemployment benefits.
What he is willing to give up for this? Quite a lot, actually. It amounts to about half a trillion dollars in future cuts to social programs (the nature of these cuts have yet to be determined), and also significant cuts to Social Security benefits, in the form known as “chained CPI.” “Chained CPI” is an alternative way of calculating the cost of living which will lower benefit amounts.
I realize that compromises are going to be made on this deal which I, along with most Democrats, are not going to like, but I am not a fan of this deal. At all. Where do I begin?
First of all, the idea of all those large unspecified cuts in social programs makes me very uneasy. Secondly, the two-year debt reprieve, while it sounds like a good idea, is actually quite risky for the Democrats, as  Brian Beutler explains . And then there are those Social Security cuts.
In last night’s lukewarm  blog post  about the deal, Paul Krugman pointed out that at least the Social Security cuts “are not nearly as bad as raising the Medicare age.” That is true, but it is also faint praise. Basically, I’m with Delong, whosays,“‘Chained-CPI’ is code for ‘let’s really impoverish some women in their 90s!’ It’s a bad policy.”
Indeed. Chained CPI would have  a disproportionately negative effect  on women, who receive less Social Security than men to begin with, and who also rely more heavily on Social Security as a source of retirement income than men do (because they are less likely to have savings or private pensions).
We actually should be talking about raising Social Security benefits, not lowering them. Very few employers are providing defined benefit pensions these days, and declining wages and increasing economic instability make it difficult for many Americans to save for their retirement. Dramatic fluctuations in the stock market mean the values of workers’ retirement portfolios can suddenly plunge in value. As Joe Nocera pointed out in  this excellent column from earlier this year, our pension system has utterly failed to meet the challenges of our brave new economy.
Already, the U.S. social security system is far less generous than those of other industrialized nations. According to the OECD, the social security benefits the median U.S. worker earns are  among the lowest  of any OECD country — about 42% of earnings, as compared to an average among OECD countries of 61% of earnings (see p. 119 of the report).
Cutting Social Security benefits should be off the table. As Delong says, “This deal would still be on the table in January. And odds are Obama could get a much better deal than this come January.” I agree. I worry, though, that cutting Social Security may be the kind of “Grand Bargain” Obama has always seemed amenable to. I don’t think it’s too cynical to believe that the White House floated the story that they were considering raising the Medicare age, so that Democrats would find the bitter pill of cutting Social Security more acceptable. Let’s hope progressives put up a real fight on this one and force the White House to hold out for something better.

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Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Fox's Ailes Urged Petraeus to Run for President

Fox's Ailes Urged Petraeus to Run for President:

Fox's Ailes Urged Petraeus to Run for President

By Bob Woodward, The Washington Post
04 December 12


Roger Ailes, the longtime Republican media guru, founder of Fox News and its current chairman, had some advice last year for then-Gen. David H. Petraeus.

o in spring 2011, Ailes asked a Fox News analyst headed to Afghanistan to pass on his thoughts to Petraeus, who was then the commander of U.S. and coalition forces there. Petraeus, Ailes advised, should turn down an expected offer from President Obama to become CIA director and accept nothing less than the chairmanship of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the top military post. If Obama did not offer the Joint Chiefs post, Petraeus should resign from the military and run for president, Ailes suggested.
The Fox News chairman's message was delivered to Petraeus by Kathleen T. McFarland, a Fox News national security analyst and former national security and Pentagon aide in three Republican administrations. She did so at the end of a 90-minute, unfiltered conversation with Petraeus that touched on the general's future, his relationship with the media and his political aspirations - or lack thereof. The Washington Post has obtained a digital recording from the meeting, which took place in Petraeus's office in Kabul.
McFarland also said that Ailes - who had a decades-long career as a Republican political consultant, advising Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush - might resign as head of Fox to run a Petraeus presidential campaign. At one point, McFarland and Petraeus spoke about the possibility that Rupert Murdoch, the head of News Corp., which owns Fox News, would "bankroll" the campaign.
"Rupert's after me as well," Petraeus told McFarland.
McFarland said she had spoken "directly" to the Fox News chairman and the "advice to you from Roger Ailes is. ... He says that if you're offered [JCS] chairman, take it. If you're offered anything else, don't take it; resign in six months and run for president."
Petraeus demurred, saying he would consider the CIA directorship if Obama offered it, as the president did several weeks later. Petraeus was confirmed and sworn in as director on Sept. 6, 2011. He resigned a year later, on Nov. 9, after the disclosure of an extramarital affair with his biographer.
In a telephone interview Monday, the wily and sharp-tongued Ailes said he did indeed ask McFarland to make the pitch to Petraeus. "It was more of a joke, a wiseass way I have,"he said. "I thought the Republican field [in the primaries] needed to be shaken up and Petraeus might be a good candidate."
Ailes added, "It sounds like she thought she was on a secret mission in the Reagan administration. ... She was way out of line. ... It's someone's fantasy to make me a kingmaker. It's not my job." He said that McFarland was not an employee of Fox but a contributor paid less than $75,000 a year.
Petraeus, Murdoch and McFarland did not respond to calls and messages requesting comment.
When McFarland first said she had a message directly from Ailes, Petraeus said, "With no one else in the room, I hope?"
Later she said, "I'm only reporting this back to Roger. And that's our deal."
Petraeus said it was okay to relay his response to Ailes, adding "that has to be off the record."
"His deal with me was that I was only supposed to talk to you," McFarland said. "And he is a little paranoid, so believe me, he doesn't have anybody in that room."
At the meeting, some 18 months ago, Petraeus told McFarland that he thought the CIA was "a treasure. ... I think that organization is full of just heroes. Unsung heroes." He went on to say, "We're going to be retrenching militarily." In contrast, the CIA and the intelligence agencies, "I think, are going to be a growth industry," Petraeus said.
While rejecting Ailes' advice, Petraeus said, "I love Roger. ... He's a brilliant guy."
Petraeus said he "would love to see" Ailes on his next trip to New York, where Ailes has his office.
"Tell him if I ever ran," Petraeus said, and then laughed, "but I won't ... but if I ever ran, I'd take him up on his offer. ... He said he would quit Fox ... and bankroll it."
"Bankroll it?" asked McFarland, who served as a senior aide to Henry Kissinger and later as a Pentagon spokeswoman in the Reagan administration.
"Or maybe I'm confusing that with Rupert," Petraeus said.
"I know Roger, he's done okay," McFarland replied, "but ... no, I think the one who's bankrolling it is the big boss."
"That might be it," Petraeus said.
"Okay," McFarland said, "the big boss is bankrolling it. Roger's going to run it. And the rest of us are going to be your in-house."
"Yeah, right, okay," Petraeus said.
"We're all set."
"It's never going to happen," Petraeus said. "You know it's never going to happen. It really isn't.
"My wife would divorce me," he added. "And I love my wife. ... We have a beautiful house." Both Petraeus and McFarland laughed. "With his-and-hers bathrooms, believe it or not. I just want to live in it. I've never spent a night in it."
* * *
The digital recording also provides a glimpse into the close relationship Petraeus had with the news media, especially Fox News. At one point, McFarland declared that "everybody at Fox loves you," adding that Ailes had directed her to ask Petraeus whether "there [is] anything Fox is doing, right or wrong, that you want to tell us to do differently?"
Petraeus didn't hesitate. "The editorial policy of Fox had shifted," he said. "It was almost as if, because they're going after Obama, they had to go after Obama's war as well." He said he had discussed this with Bret Baier, a key Fox anchor.
"Papers and news outlets have editorial policies," Petraeus said. "They know sort of how their bosses feel about things ... and it causes a certain shading," Petraeus continued.
One example, according to Petraeus: "Off the record, the New York Times was never going to give Bush or Iraq a break. I don't care what happened.
"In fact, one time Thom Shanker [a Times military correspondent], who I think very highly of, wrote a piece. And it was on me, before I was going to testify one time, and they had — a pretty good piece, I mean, factual, in other words. Again, all we want is the truth. We're not out to spin. But then it had this sort of really odd thing inserted in it. And it was something that had been proven unfounded, but it sort of bounced around on the MoveOn.org kind of Webs. And I said, "Thom, where did that come from?' He said, "Oh, that was added by the editors.'?"
Both journalists had different recollections. Baier said he recalled no such conversation with Petraeus. "That's B.S.," he said. "We cover the war the same way no matter what administration is in power."
Shanker also said he did not remember saying anything resembling what Petraeus asserted. "I don't blame the editors for what appears under my byline," he said. "It undermines your own credibility."
* * *
In the meeting with McFarland, Petraeus gave his standard line about the Afghanistan war, saying there had been significant progress, but "that progress remains fragile and reversible."
McFarland mentioned her conversation with Petraeus in a FoxNews.com piece on April 27, 2011. "Our discussion was off the record, and to respect that I will not quote the general," she wrote. By that time, it was clear that Petraeus would be nominated as CIA director. "I can't help thinking that the Obama administration has done something a bit underhanded but politically shrewd by tapping Petraeus for the CIA," she added, because it would remove him as a "potential rival" in the presidential contest.
On Monday, Ailes, 72, said there was "zero chance" he would leave Fox to reenter politics for Petraeus or anyone else. "The money is too good," he said, declining to say how much he earned, although reliable reports have pegged the amount at roughly $20 million per year under a new four-year contract.
"I left politics in 1988 because I hated it," Ailes said. "My main interest is seeing my 12-year-old's basketball games."

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Monday, December 3, 2012

Michael Tomasky | Obama’s Republican Revenge

Michael Tomasky | Obama’s Republican Revenge:

Obama’s Republican Revenge

By Michael Tomasky, The Daily Beast
02 December 12

ike all of you, I have no idea how this fiscal cliff (I know, I know, I’m not supposed to call it that!) business is going to work out. I dearly want to see see President Obama win on the 39.6 percent rate for upper incomes. But there may be one thing I’d like even more: for him to win the fight over raising the debt ceiling. There are more important issues facing the nation, I’ll grant you. But nothing, and I mean nothing, symbolizes how extreme, arrogant, oblivious to precedent and reason the Republican Party has become than the position Republicans took on the debt ceiling last year. It’s made worse by the fact that they made a then-weak Obama eat dirt. He seems to know this, and I hope to high heaven he seeks and secures his revenge.
The most interesting wrinkle in the package of proposals announced by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner on Thursday was the call for Congress to relinquish all authority over the debt limit. Of course this is not going to happen. The power of that debt-ceiling vote is the only leverage Capitol Hill Republicans have right now. They know this, and they certainly plan to use it to try to extract from the administration promises that it will agree to domestic spending or entitlement cuts in like proportion to the amount by which the limit is raised.
But Geithner and Obama, obviously, also know that the debt vote is the only leverage the GOP has, and therefore, they want to make it an issue now and get people to start thinking about it. It’s not yet clear the exact date by which a vote to raise the limit would have to take place—mid-February, maybe, at the very latest. But it’s close enough to the Jan. 1 tax and spending deadlines that the Republicans can surely threaten that they’ll be willing to take the country into default if the administration doesn’t go along on deep spending cuts.
Here’s what I think is at stake here for Obama, and it’s pretty huge. He might well get his tax increase. A huge win. If there is a larger deal, chances seem good that it will be more on his terms than the GOP’s. If there is not a deal, it doesn’t seem to me that it should be so hard to persuade a majority that it was the Republicans’ fault, because the people know now that the Republicans are obstructionist and hostile. So Obama comes out all right either way. Then, soon thereafter, Congress doesn’t increase the debt ceiling, and the bonds are downgraded and veterans don’t get their checks. If that nightmare scenario happens, there’s a good chance that blame shifts to the president, because seniors and veterans kind of expect the president to be looking after their benefits.
What leverage does Obama have against that Republican leverage, and what can he do? Three  things. First, what he’s doing—getting out of Washington and barnstorming instead of sitting in Washington negotiating. The worst thing he did by far in last year’s debt talks was that he let the Republicans explain to the American people what the debt ceiling was and what they were doing about it. Now at least he’s trying to educate the public as to the GOP’s unprecedented (except by them, last year) behavior.
Second, Obama could pick up on the idea bruited last year by (of all people) Mitch McConnell. As the debt talks were lurching into the eleventh hour, McConnell proposed a way out of the problem. It’s very procedurally complicated. You can read a nice summary here. In essence, it changes Congress’s role on raising the debt limit from an active one to a passive one—the debt limit would be raised automatically unless Congress specifically acted to block it. Obama would have to propose a spending cut of one dollar for every dollar the ceiling is raised. But—and here’s the catch that Obama could exploit—the increase to the debt limit and the spending cuts would be considered separately. So Obama could promise $900 billion in cuts, but the Democratic Senate could agree to only $300 billion. Or whatever. Dirty pool? Hardly. It would serve these charlatans right—the debt ceiling shouldn’t be tied to any other demands anyway, and it never had been in our history until last year by the GOP.
Finally, there’s the tantalizing “constitutional option”—invoking certain provisions with the Fourteenth Amendment to declare (yes, simply to declare) that Congress has no rightful role in setting the debt ceiling anyway, raise it unilaterally, and make the courts stop him. Many observers urged this route last year, chieflyBill Clinton among them. Obama didn’t have the stones then. He didn’t even dangle it as a possibility just to make the other guys, think. Remember? He took it off the table unilaterally.
Well, it sure looks like this year’s model is a different and tougher Obama. The debt debacle of 2011 was far and away the nadir of his first term. It’s true the Republicans in Congress lost ground in the polls also, but Obama lost more. He was just humiliated by them. For his sake, and for the sake of future Democratic presidents, who’ll have guns held to their heads too by extremist Republican Congresses, he needs to reverse that, and reverse it now—he can’t spend another four years as a hostage.
 
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How Grover Norquist Herds Reporters

How Grover Norquist Herds Reporters:

Grover’s Best Trick

How he herds reporters.

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In November 1995, a National Journalreporter boldly went where no member of the mainstream media had gone before: the Washington, D.C., conference room of Americans for Tax Reform on a Wednesday morning. That’s where—and when—ATR’s president, Grover Norquist, had been convening a weekly confab for various conservative operatives for the past couple of years. “Jackets are off and participants devour bagels and cream cheese,” the article relayed. “The goal of the Wednesday meetings … is to make sure the leaders of all the major conservative organizations know what everybody is up to. ‘That way,’ [Norquist] said, ‘no one gets surprised.’ ” Since that story appeared nearly two decades ago, Norquist has invited so many Washington journalists to the sessions that they have become a set piece. “If you believe in a vast, right-wing conspiracy,” an NPR reporter told listeners in 2001, “this is its clubhouse.”


Of course, real conspirators don’t allow outsiders to eavesdrop on their scheming, any more than virtuoso puppet masters put their string-pulling on view. Yet Norquist has managed to be seen as both, largely thanks to the journalists he’s courted. (In a town where reporters can find it hard to get conservatives to return their calls, Norquist rolls out the red carpet for them.) As anti-tax dogma took hold of his party, he rode his media friendliness to disproportionate prominence. As that dogma is now threatening to crack during the negotiations over the fiscal cliff, he’s using it to claim the spotlight again.


Since 1986, Norquist has been getting Republican politicians to sign a pledge to never raise taxes. In the current, lame-duck Congress, 219 House members and 39 Senators have signed it. As the story is being framed in the press, the nation’s future hinges on those lawmakers’ fealty to one activist (or their fear of crossing him by breaking their promise). “Where do you stand on the pledge?” David Gregory asked New York GOP congressman Peter King last week on Meet the Press. “Can this be overcome?” But the media’s fixation on the pledge part of Norquist’s operation is misplaced. As National Review editor Rich Lowry recently wrote, “[E]veryone acts as if Grover is the instrument of the [Republican] party’s Babylonian captivity,” but his oath “represent[s] GOP orthodoxy” and a top priority of its biggest donors. Norquist was just savvy enough to get Republicans to promise to do something they were almost biologically required to do anyway—sort of like getting fish to pledge they won’t leave the water. If Republicans ultimately do agree to raise taxes as part of a fiscal-cliff deal, it will be because, evolutionarily speaking, they had no choice—not because they suddenly worked up the guts to buck Norquist.


In the meantime, Norquist has been even more solicitous toward the press than usual. Last Wednesday morning, right before his weekly meeting, he sat for an hourlong interview with Politico’s Mike Allen broadcast live on C-Span. “I have job security that most people don’t have, okay?” Norquist said. “At least the marijuana-legalization people could end up out of a job in a couple of years, if they win, right? We’re always going to feel that our taxes are too high.”

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Monday, November 26, 2012

A Decisive Win for Liberalism, But Not a Permanent One | Mother Jones

A Decisive Win for Liberalism, But Not a Permanent One | Mother Jones:

A Decisive Win for Liberalism, But Not a Permanent One

| Wed Nov. 7, 2012 11:41 AM PST
obama winsPresident Barack Obama greets the crowd at his election-night headquarters with his family.
On Tuesday night, a country that once sold black people as property elected a black man to its highest office for a second time. Twice now, Virginia, the seat of the old Confederacy, has given its electoral votes to America's first black president. Although Barack Obama's presidency has often departed from the best moral instincts of American liberalism, from his dismal record on clemency to his stewardship of an unaccountable national security state, the fact of his presidency represents a triumph of American liberalism's ability to push the boundaries of what is possible. 
Liberalism's triumph in the 2012 election goes far beyond the reelection of the first black president of the United States:
  • When the next Senate is sworn in, it will include Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin, the first openly gay member of America's upper house.
  • Colorado and Washington voted to legalize marijuana for recreational use, setting up an inevitable conflict between the federal government's immoral war on drugs and an American electorate that is growing increasingly weary of it.
  • California voters declined to reject the death penalty, but they voted to raise taxes and limit the state's draconian "three strikes" law, which mandated automatic life imprisonment for individuals convicted of three felonies.
  • Marriage equality supporters notched wins in four states, for the first time winning at the ballot box instead of in the courts or state legislatures.
  • Maryland voters approved in-state tuition discounts for undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children.
  • Senate candidates Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock, the most regressive symbols of the Republican agenda on women's rights, were defeated. 
The emerging Democratic majority, as Ruy Teixera once put it, seems to have emerged. But Obama owes that coalition, to an incredible degree, to the decision of Republicans to alienate every significant minority in the country.
Blind to their own identity politics, Republicans dismissed the concerns of gays and lesbians, and women and minorities, as wish lists from "special interests." The right killed George W. Bush's effort at immigration reform in 2006, and was then captured wholesale by immigration restrictionists whose naked hostility to Latinos meant that Obama could preside over more than a million deportations and still win the Hispanic vote in a landslide. American Muslims, whoonce overwhelmingly voted for Bush, became a toxic fixation for Republicans who began to regard them as a potential fifth column. Granted a majority in Congress with a mandate to heal a bleak American economy, Republicans chose to focus on restricting women's access to abortion and birth control. Eager to deny Obama any legislative accomplishments whatsoever, the GOP attempted to filibuster the repeal of the military's policy banning gays and lesbians from open service. Republicans shouldn't blame Romney for his defeat, not after they paved such a narrow, winding road to victory. 
The big question now is whether and to what degree 2012 heralds the emergence of a new liberal consensus, a tacit agreement that government has a responsibility to provide for certain basic needs but to stay out of people's business when it comes to other matters. Ross Douthat, a conservative columnist at the New York Timeshas described the Obama coalition of women, minorities, and young voters as a "realignment," writing that "the age of Reagan is officially over, and the Obama majority is the only majority we have."
To the extent that we are looking at a new Democratic governing majority, Obama didn't build that—not by himself. He had a great deal of help from Republicans whose refusal to acknowledge a changing American electorate narrowed their political coalition. Because Republican intolerance played such a decisive role in the electorate that emerged Tuesday, it's hard to draw a broad conclusion about a long-term ideological shift in the United States, or to see Obama's coalition as a lasting one.
Absent a successful Democratic-led effort at immigration reform, for example, the Latino vote likely remains up for grabs. Young voters could grow disillusioned by an Obama administration that continues its aggressive prosecution of the war on drugs. Someday, religious conservatives may realize that observant American Muslims are natural allies rather than domestic enemies. The success and permanence of Obama's new coalition, and of American liberalism, depends on what happens now—particularly whether the American economy recovers enough in the next four years for Obama and the Democratic Party to be able to claim credit for restoring prosperity, not just bringing the country back from the brink.
Douthat is right when he says that the Obama coalition, which seems likely to grow even stronger as the country grows more diverse, might "not last forever; it may not even last more than another four years." Remember: The Democrats were once the party of the Deep South, and the Republicans were once the party of civil rights. In politics, no coalition is permanent.

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